Ceiling and Floor for Top QB Prospects
Joe Burrow QB LSU
Joe Burrow has the highest potential of any quarterback in the draft. He is a high ceiling, high floor player and I can't see him being a bust. My ceiling for Joe Burrow is Aaron Rodgers. While his arm isn't nearly as strong as Rodgers, his deep ball is just as accurate. Rodgers and Burrow both have amazing pocket mobility and there are a lot of similarities between the two. They each have this type of smirky confidence and I just see success in Burrow's future. The floor I have for Burrow is Tony Romo. This is really based on if he doesn't fit into what the Bengals want to do. Cincinnati doesn't have this rich history of amazing quarterbacks and they don't have an experienced coach. Burrow's early success depends on how well Zac Taylor adapts his offense to what Burrow does well. Joe Burrow is a high floor, high ceiling player.
Tua Tagovailoa QB Alabama
Tua's potential really depends on his health. Tua's football IQ is remarkable and the way he manipulates the defense is amazing. His eyes are perfectly aligned with his feet and is nearly perfect with RPO's. I think his ceiling has to be Drew Brees. There isn't a single teammate who has something bad to say about either of these players. Both of their football IQs line up and are deadly accurate quarterbacks. Tua's floor is Case Keenum. Overall accuracy is great and has is also a really intelligent football player. Keenum just couldn't put everything together and never really commanded the huddle. I couldn't find a player similar to Tua who got hurt, but the only way Tua busts is if he gets hurt. Tua and Joe Burrow are both up there as one of the best quarterbacks I've ever scouted. I see both players being successful for a very long time.
Justin Herbert QB Oregon
I am not as high on Justin Herbert as most of national media is. I don't think he his ceiling is that high and I think he has a low floor. So my ceiling for Justin Herbert is Ryan Tannehill while his floor is Blaine Gabbert. Herbert has a super strong arm and is really mobile, he is also book smart. That being said, I don't think he is going to be an all-pro player. He locks on to his first read too often, holds on to the ball way too long, and is inaccurate in the red zone. Herbert is going to go in the top ten on Thursday, but my grade on him isn't as high.
Jordan Love QB Utah State
Once again, I'm not as high on Jordan Love as everyone else is. That being said, Jordan Love is your prototypical "boom or bust" prospect. His ceiling is relatively high, while his floor is super low. His ceiling for me Matthew Stafford while his floor is Paxton Lynch. His interceptions are going to terrify me, but I like his "relaxed" presence. A realistic prediction for Love I think is Trubisky in his playoff year. The Bears were mostly carried by their defense, but I don't think either Love nor Trubisky are franchise quarterbacks. With Love, it really depends on the coach he ends up with. He needs a coach who's willing to go all in on him.
Jalen Hurts QB Oklahoma
Jalen Hurts has the IT factor that I love. It reminds me of Russell Wilson who I have as his ceiling. Hurts' poise is rare, but it's his ability to make off-script plays that gets me excited. Jalen Hurts is one of my favorite players in this entire class. His floor has to be Tim Tebow. The way Hurts runs could put him in danger, he is also very system dependent. Hurts is an alpha, therefor I think he'll find a way onto the field. I don't believe Hurts is a plug and play guy, he's more of a build your offense around him. Hurts' success is really dependent on the system and flexibility of his head coach.